๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง-๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ?
August 8th, 2022
- Inflation (and recessions) can be nerve-racking for people and their hard-earned savings and wealth.
- Yet there are six reasons which make investing in private rental properties a potentially wise investment in these changeable times.
- This article looks at how investing in Grantham property could help you โhedgeโ against inflation and protect your savings & wealth against the possible recession.
The cost-of-living predicament is threatening many Grantham householdsโ budgets.
Inflation is running at 7.8%, yet the best savings rates in the market are only 2.75% (because of low Bank of England interest rates). This means that the value of peopleโs savings is falling fast.
To add insult to injury, the possibility of a recession on the horizon could add another nail in the coffin of peopleโs wealth and savings.
Looking back at the last recession (ignoring the 2020 Covid recession), the Stock Market FTSE index dropped 40.1% during the Credit Crunch (2008/9) โ scarcely a soothing thought if you worry about a recession looming in the next couple of years.
A recession can have a catastrophic impact on peopleโs household budgets, as a weaker economy characteristically means that salaries drop, and people get made redundant. So, why do I suggest Grantham rental properties will help to protect your wealth and hedge against inflation?
๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐๐งโ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐๐ญ, ๐ฒ๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ ๐จ ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฉ โ ๐ฅ๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐ ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ฒ.
1. One of the most significant benefits of investing in residential property is to hedge against inflation. An โinflation hedgeโ is an investment that defends against the decreased purchasing power of your money that results from the loss of its worth/value due to inflation.
The last time the UK suffered high and persistent inflation was the 1970s.
In 1973, the average British house was worth ยฃ9,942. In 1980, that same house was worth ยฃ23,287. If the same ยฃ9,934 had been invested instead in the stock market in 1973, it would be worth ยฃ19,384 in 1980.
So how did that compare to inflation?
Neither property nor the stock market beat inflation in those seven years (as the goods and services of that ยฃ9,942 in 1973 had risen to ยฃ25,897 by 1980).
But investing in the stock market between 1973 and 1980, that stock market investor would have lost 25.2% of their investment in โreal termsโ compared with only 10.1% for property investors.
However, there was the bonus of seven yearsโ worth of rent!
To give you some idea of what that would be worth in todayโs figures, even if the rent didnโt go up during that time frameโฆ
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ซ๐ง ยฃ๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ.
2. Rental properties have repetitive, regular monthly income, whilst dividends from the stock market are dependent on their profits which, in a recession, can be hit and miss.
3. Existing Grantham landlords know that the rents their Grantham rental properties achieve donโt historically decline during recessions in the medium term.
In 2008, Grantham rents dipped by 5.2%, yet they soon bounced back a year later.
And even if average rents do go down, every tenancyโs rent is fixed at the start of the tenancy. Also, it is infrequent for a tenant to negotiate the rent downwards mid-tenancy even if average rents did drop.
4. Property prices sometimes fall during recessions.
In the 2008 Credit Crunch recession, South Kesteven property values dropped 20.55%.
Dropping from ยฃ180,951 at the peak in September 2007 to ยฃ143,762 in July 2009 (before they started to rise again).
Yet as I stated above, the FTSE stock market dropped 40.1% with the Credit Crunch. Also in previous recessions, the FTSE Stock market dropped 36% on Black Monday before the early 1990โs recession and 55.3% in 1974
Which sort of drop would you prefer?
5. (Almost) guaranteed rental payments. Insurance can be taken out for rental payments (you canโt get that on stocks and shares). Also, the government will cover most (or all) rent when someone is made redundant and needs to apply for social security.
6. For those Grantham landlords who take a mortgage, inflation can be a benefit. The first is the effect of inflation on mortgage debt. As Grantham house prices rise over time, it reduces the loan to value percentage of your mortgage debt and increases your equity. You will receive a lower interest rate when you re-mortgage in the future because of the lower loan to-value percentage.
Also, as the equity in your Grantham rental property increases, assuming you fix your mortgage, your payments stay the same.
Finally, inflation also helps Grantham buy-to-let landlords because rents tend to increase with inflation. So as rents go up, your fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage payments stay the same, creating the prospect of more significant profit from your buy-to-let investment.
๐๐๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ .
Rent arrears can be a worry, though. However, during 2021, landlords who used a letting agent were, according to an investigation from Denton House Research, 272.5% less likely to be in arrears of two months or more.
One of the biggest reasons is the more stringent tenant referencing letting agents tend to do compared to landlords who do it themselves. At our agency, we like to reference tenants carefully for job security, stability, and any history of non-payment on rents, constantly liaising with previous rental properties to see if they were good tenants.
That is why many tenants with a poor tenancy record are attracted to properties that are not through agents, as they know most (not all) DIY landlords donโt reference their tenants as thoroughly as letting agents do. Solid referencing is not a 100% guarantee you wonโt get rent arrears or have your rental property trashed, yet it will go a long way to mitigate it.
One of the things about investing in Grantham rental properties is that buy-to-let investors have more control over their returns than stock market investors do. Buy-to-let provides long-term stability and constant income to counterweight the massive swings seen in the FTSE stock market.
Something is reassuring about touching and feeling your investment โ the โbricks and mortarโ.
You must make your own decision when investing in the private rental market in Grantham. If youโd like to chat over the phone for five or ten minutes to discuss where I would be investing in the Grantham property market, donโt hesitate to drop me a message or pick up the phone.
How are you planning for the spectre of a potential recession?